2-Days Workshop - Next Generation Project Risk Management & Estimation of Project NPV, Cost, Schedule and Reserves


October 23, 2020
8:30 AM CDT - 5:00 PM CDT
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Virtual Instructor-Led


Course Abstract

Risk and uncertainty are inherent to projects. They influence every major project decision and eventual outcomes. Ignoring them will result in unrealistic estimates of project net present value (NPV), schedule, and cost. The likely consequence is poor project investment decisions, schedule delays, cost overruns, and ultimate project failures. Today’s business environment is volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA). In this environment effective management of project risk and uncertainty and realistic estimation of NPV, cost, and schedule are paramount to your project success. Hardly a few years ago, risk was considered a four-letter dirty word and virtually ignored in many organizations. However, today risk management is broadly accepted to be a critical part of project management.

The commonly used first generation risk management tools are risk registers involving qualitative risk analysis. The second-generation tools, which are not as common yet, are based on quantitative analysis. The next generation approach—the focus of this workshop—supplements the existing methods by addressing, among other things: 1) Ambiguity risk that deals with uncertainty about future; 2) Emergent risk caused by events commonly known as “unknown unknowns” that can only be recognized only after they have occurred; 3) opportunities with a positive impact on project outcomes; 4) integration of cost and schedule risks to account for cost changes driven by schedule changes; 5) agile mitigation techniques involving iterative and incremental methods; and 6) integration of project risks into a portfolio framework.

This course will present numerous tools and techniques that include probability distributions, simulations, tornado diagrams, correlations, stochastic estimation, portfolio balancing, stochastic portfolio optimization, etc. The “NextGen” approach, first of all, helps us obtain more realistic estimates of project NPV, cost, schedule, and reserves. Second, it offers better insight into how a project may unfold due to risks and uncertainty. Third, most important, it facilitates right project investment decisions at the portfolio level. Ultimately, it helps us complete projects on time and under budget and deliver promised value to our stakeholders.

Learning Objectives

  • Define and quantitatively analyze uncertainty and risk
  • Generate more realistic project NPV, cost, and schedule estimates
  • Account for impacts of threats as well as opportunities on project estimates
  • Integrate schedule and cost risks by accounting for cost variations driven by schedule changes
  • Estimate project and portfolio reserves using a probabilistic approach
  • Use Monte Carlo methods for schedule and cost risk analysis, NPV estimation, and portfolio optimization
  • Perform sensitivity analysis using tornado diagrams, correlations, critical indexes, probability Gantt charts, and schedule impact indicators
  • Develop a holistic approach to risk management by integrating project and portfolio risk analysis


Course Format

The course is presented in a workshop format involving hands-on activities. It consists of mini-lectures, interactive discussions, and team-based exercises and case studies. You will receive a complimentary copy of a software application called HawkEye, developed by the course instructor, Dr. Prasad S. Kodukula, PMP, PgMP, and his research team. It consists of a suite of next generation risk and decision tools. You are required to bring your own laptop to the classroom (traditional or virtual), so you can work hands-on with HawkEye. The software is designed to help you learn easily how to quantify and analyze risk and uncertainty. Your instructor will demonstrate each tool and technique using an example problem. You will learn them through hands-on application. The class size will be limited, so that personal attention can be given to each participant in helping with the hands-on exercises.

 What You’ll Receive

  • A digital copy of the participant guide with workshop slides, exercises, and case studies
  • A copy of HawkEye, a software application consisting of a suite of risk and decision tools
  • A digital copy of the help manual for HawkEye (a PDF file with basic instructions on how to use the software)
  • A digital copy (Kindle) of the book written by the course instructor Dr. Kodukula (coauthor: Chandra Papudesu): Project Valuation Using Real Options: A Practitioner's Guide

Who Should Attend

  • Project managers, program managers, and portfolio managers 
  • Project planners responsible for estimation of project costs and schedules
  • Project analysts involved in financial modeling of project benefits and costs
  • PMO staff responsible for initiating or streamlining project and portfolio management processes
  • Decision makers involved in authorizing projects


Date & Time

Mandatory Pre-workshop Training

Wednesday, Oct 21, 2020 @ 7:00 pm – 8:00 pm CST


Friday, Oct 23 to Saturday, Oct 24, 2020, 8.30 am – 5:00 pm CST   


  • 17 PDUs (14 technical and 3 strategic) against PMP/PgMP/PFMP
  • 7 PDUs (6 technical and 1 strategic) against PMI-RMP
  • 7 PDUs (4 technical and 1 strategic) against PMI-SP


No of Participants

Min: 10

Max: 25

Workshop Quorum:    Chapter reserves the right to cancel the class if registration is less than 10 participants by 10/15/2020. Full payment will be refunded to the registrants.

Cancellation and No-Show Policy

If you registered for the course and later found out that you will be unable to attend it for whatever reason, please send an email to Susmita Sharma,  [email protected]  requesting to cancel your registration as early as possible. All cancellations are subject to a minimum of $30.00 fee during the early bird, and you will be refunded the remainder of your registration fee within 15 days of your cancellation email. Cancellations after Early Bird duration are subject to full charge. No refunds and no substitute participants allowed.   


Dr. Prasad S. Kodukula, PMP, PgMP, is a multiple award-winning thought leader, speaker, coach, author, and entrepreneur with more than 30 years of professional experience. As a self proclaimed Global Ambassador of Project Management, he has spoken on project management topics in nearly 50 countries. He has trained or coached several thousands of project, program, and portfolio management professionals at more than 40 Fortune 100 companies, the World Bank, the United Nations, and the United States government. He also teaches project management at the University of Chicago as adjunct faculty. Prasad is Founder/CEO of Kodukula & Associates, Inc., a project management training, coaching, and consulting company in Chicago and Cofounder/CEO of NeoChloris, Inc., a bioprocess technology company. He is also a cofounder and former CEO of 2Ci, which was recognized by the State of Illinois as the most innovative small business in  environmental  technology in the state. He has been honored twice by the Project Management Institute as “Best of the Best in Project Management” with 2016 PMI Eric Jenett Project Management Award of Excellence and 2010 PMI Distinguished Contribution Award. He also received prestigious awards from the USEPA and the States of Illinois and Kansas for outstanding achievements in education, training, and technology innovation. Prasad is a co-author or contributing author of eight books and more than 40 articles. He holds four patents.


$450.00 Member Ticket

$500.00 Non-Member Ticket